Florida starts on top, Arkansas spoils Virginia’s trip to D.C., and a couple of tidy point spreads are about to get torched.
College basketball isn’t easing into anything this year. The first game of the 2026-27 season tips at 9:30 Sunday morning Eastern, in Rome. By the end of Monday, 183 Division I games will be final, starting with a midnight tip between Liberty and High Point in Rock Hill, South Carolina.
Most of those games are paychecks. A big program writes a check, a small program shows up and takes a beating, and the box score tells you nothing. We are not picking those. We are picking the 16 games this week that might actually tell us something, plus one line per league on everything else.
One thing to keep in mind as you read: this is the first year of a 76-team NCAA Tournament. More at-large spots means a November loss hurts less than it used to. A November win over a ranked team on a neutral floor is worth more than it’s ever been.
Where things stand
Florida opens No. 1 in the AP poll with 47 of 59 first-place votes, the first time the Gators have started a season on top since 2006. Duke, Illinois, UConn and Arizona fill out the top five. The SEC has seven ranked teams. The Big 12 has six, the Big Ten five, the ACC four and the Big East two. Gonzaga, now in the rebuilt Pac-12, is the only ranked team from outside those five leagues.
Every pick below comes with a score and a confidence level: Lock, Lean or Coin flip. We’ll keep a running record. Feel free to throw it back at us in December.
Sunday’s opener: Villanova vs. Notre Dame (Rome)
9:30 a.m. ET, FOX. Villanova -7.5.
Kevin Willard won 24 games in his first season at Villanova and got the Wildcats back to the NCAA Tournament after three years away. Year two starts with Tyler Perkins, last season’s leading scorer, plus transfer Kwame Evans Jr. Notre Dame lost Jalen Haralson to Tennessee over the summer and is still sorting out where the points come from.
Everyone in this building will be jet-lagged. In a game that ugly, I want the team with the guy who has done it before.
The pick: Villanova 74, Notre Dame 66 – Lock.
Game of the Week: No. 14 Miami vs. No. 1 Florida (Tampa)
Monday, 6 p.m., ESPN2. Florida -4.5.
The No. 1 team in the country could have opened with a home buy game like most of the top 25. Instead Florida is playing a ranked ACC opponent in Tampa on opening night. Give Todd Golden credit for that.
Florida’s frontcourt is why it’s No. 1. Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu give the Gators size, passing, and rebounding that nobody else can match on paper. Miami’s best answer is Malik Reneau, a first-team All-ACC pick last season who came back for one more run. My question is who guards Haugh when Miami goes small, and I haven’t found a good answer on Miami’s roster.
I’m not laying the 4.5, though. Opening-night games on neutral floors get sloppy, and Miami is good enough to hang around until the last two minutes.
The pick: Florida 79, Miami 75. Florida wins, Miami covers. Lean.
The rest of the big ones
No. 4 UConn vs. No. 16 Michigan (Boston)
Friday, 8 p.m., TNT.
This is a rematch of last April’s national championship game in name only. Michigan won the title, then lost Dusty May to the NBA and its entire frontcourt (Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara) to the draft. Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney are good players. They aren’t that frontcourt.
UConn has Braylon Mullins, who might be the best player on the floor, and Dan Hurley has spent seven months hearing about the loss. I can’t get past that second part.
The pick: UConn 77, Michigan 69 – Lock.
No. 12 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Virginia (Washington, D.C.)
Sunday, Nov. 8, 1 p.m., ESPN.
Our boldest call of the week. Virginia went 30-6 last season, brings back first-team All-ACC forward Thijs De Ridder and has a point guard in Chance Mallory who looks ready for a big jump. None of that is in dispute.
But Arkansas won the SEC Tournament in March, and that league was the best in the country by just about every measure again last season. Three spots in a preseason poll is noise.
The pick: Arkansas 73, Virginia 70. Coin flip.
No. 5 Arizona vs. No. 22 UCLA (Las Vegas)
Monday, 10 p.m., TNT. Arizona -5.5.
Arizona went 36-3, swept the Big 12 regular-season and tournament titles and reached its first Final Four since 2001. Motiejus Krivas is the Big 12’s preseason player of the year, and Ivan Kharchenkov and Caleb Holt make this one of the most complete rosters in the sport. UCLA has Trent Perry, a preseason All-Big Ten pick, and an old Pac-12 grudge.
The pick: Arizona 80, UCLA 72. Lock.
Memphis vs. No. 18 Iowa State (Sioux Falls, S.D.)
Monday, 7 p.m., FS1. Iowa State -13.5.
Thirteen and a half is a big number against a Memphis team that will have real athletes. It’s also a neutral site a few hours’ drive from Ames, which means the crowd will be close to a home game for Iowa State. Memphis will make a run in the second half, but it won’t be enough to matter.
The pick: Iowa State 82, Memphis 68. Lock.
Power vs. power
Four games between two of the big five conferences. Shorter takes, same stakes.
Wake Forest at No. 24 Vanderbilt (Thursday, 6 p.m., ESPN2). Memorial Gym in early November, with Tyler Tanner running the show, is a miserable trip for anybody. Vanderbilt 86, Wake Forest 74 – Lock
Maryland at Georgetown (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., Peacock). A local rivalry downtown at Capital One Arena. Maryland has Pharrel Payne, a preseason All-Big Ten pick, but road games this early are where new rosters find out what they don’t know yet. Georgetown 70, Maryland 67. Coin flip.
Nebraska vs. Providence (Saturday, 7 p.m., FS1, Uncasville, Conn.). Pryce Sandfort averaged 18.1 points per game last season and he’s back. Providence will rely heavily on its defensive ability, which we think could shock some people in this one. Nebraska 65, Providence 71. Lean.
Penn State vs. Pitt (Sunday, 8 p.m., ESPN2, the Palestra). Two teams that haven’t really made much noise in the past few years, but we think Pitt will be the stronger of the two. Pitt 68, Penn State 65. Coin flip.
Upset watch
Two upsets worth picking.
Ohio State over No. 25 BYU (Monday, 9 p.m., FS1, Salt Lake City). BYU is a 2.5-point favorite, but this game is at the Delta Center, not the Marriott Center. John Mobley Jr. made the preseason All-Big Ten team, and a guard like that can take a crowd out of a neutral-site game in five minutes. Ohio State 75, BYU 72.
San Diego State over Colorado (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., USA, San Diego). The first Bill Walton Classic is at Pechanga Arena, a short drive from Viejas, so call it a road game for Colorado with a different name on the building. San Diego State 71, Colorado 66.
Three I thought about and passed on.
Saint Louis vs. Missouri (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPNU, St. Louis). These two haven’t played since 2001, when Missouri won by two. Saint Louis went 29-6 and beat Georgia in the tournament last year, but Josh Schertz has a mostly new roster. Missouri has made the tournament three of the last four years under Dennis Gates. Missouri 74, Saint Louis 71.
Purdue vs. No. 15 Gonzaga (Monday, 7:30 p.m., TNT, Las Vegas). Purdue starts the year unranked, ending a 79-week run in the poll. Gonzaga’s frontcourt of Massamba Diop and Braden Huff is a problem Purdue can’t solve in one week. Gonzaga 81, Purdue 74.
California vs. No. 10 Houston (Sunday). Not a chance.
Everyone else, one line per league
ACC: Duke, Louisville, Virginia, North Carolina and the rest roll. If anyone sweats, it’s Florida State against Troy on Friday.
SEC: Nobody sweats.
Big Ten: Montana at Oregon on Monday night. Oregon is favored by 16.5 with 11 newcomers on the roster.
Big 12: Yale at UCF on Friday. Ivy teams don’t come south to lose by 30.
Big East: South Florida at DePaul on Thursday. That one could be a game into the final four minutes.
Lock of the Week: No. 10 Houston over California (Stateline, Nev.)
Sunday, 8:30 p.m., The CW.
Houston is old again. Joseph Tugler is one of the best defenders in the country, and Kelvin Sampson added Dedan Thomas Jr. from LSU, Delrecco Gillespie from Kent State, Corey Hadnot II from Purdue Fort Wayne and Chendall Weaver from Texas. That’s a lot of grown men for a Cal team to deal with at a Lake Tahoe casino arena on a Sunday night.
The pick: Houston 78, California 58. Lock.
Next week
The Champions Classic is Tuesday, Nov. 10, at the United Center in Chicago: Duke vs. Michigan State, then Kansas vs. Kentucky. We’ll know a lot more about everybody by then. Including me.
Season record: 0-0. Check back next week.
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